Yesterday , I did a easy tough calculation about General Motors to attempt to get at how much manufacturing job loss one might attribute to international competitors versus automation and productivity increases. Numerous commenters objected that my assumptions had been too simplistic, particularly in neglecting the home content material in international autos and the importance of shifts within the supply chain over time.
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Complicating your train even more is the fact that folks are inclined to maintain their cars longer nowadays than they used to. This is in large part because quality has gone up, reducing the frequency wanted to purchase a brand new automobile. I think this has way more to do with the declining share of GDP devoted to auto purchases than any of the other components you mentioned.